International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Market Report

Thursday 22 February 2018


US market is about $4/t lower on the week, as beneficial rains in the eastern HRW wheat areas triggered some profit-taking and encouraged new sellers to enter the fray. Although parts of the southern plains remain in drought condition, which is expanding westward, and will keep weather in traders’ minds, the recent price action was a correction from an overbought market condition, both in Chicago and Kansas City. USDA will release its first unofficial estimate of the planted area today, with the trade expecting an area similar to last year’s record low.

EU prices are up €1.50/t on the week, supported by recent tender activity and rising prices. Russian wheat values rose sharply last week, supported by strong export demand and farmer retention, due to the strength of the rouble. The Black Sea is expecting a severe plunge in temperatures over the next 7-10 days and, with the EU also expected to experience a return to winter over the next few days, concerns are mounting that emerging crops may be at risk of damage in areas where snow cover is non-existent. European markets have consolidated on recent tender results and reports of another Algeria purchase yesterday, which on paper seems close to replacement, will keep cash markets underpinned. French farm office reported new crop wheat sowings 84% in good/excellent condition, lower than the 93% reported a year ago.

LIFFE is trading slightly lower on the week, with currency also slightly weaker. Market dynamics remain tedious, with physical prices in most of the country hardly moving. However, milling premiums are edging lower as supplies come to market and mills fill up in the nearby months.

In summary, the US has seen some rain and the market reacted accordingly, but weather concerns in the US, South America, and now the EU and Black Sea, are far from over. Fund managers remain short of Chicago wheat, although this week’s price action seems to reflect they are still happy to hold a short position, but they have almost squared out their short corn position, and now hold a long soy position. The USDA will release the first meaningful US acreage numbers today, but with all-wheat area expected to show little change, the focus will be on the corn and soy numbers. Once released and digested, the market will return to trading weather again!

Malting Barley

New crop prices are relatively unchanged on the week. Concerns regarding wet conditions delaying planting in France have eased and buyers remain relaxed with a view that it is too early for any real impact on yield at this stage. The fundamentals still point to a greater malting barley area across the EU and, if conditions improve from here, we could see new crop premiums reduce. All eyes are on the weather.

Old crop malting barley premiums have been squeezed this week following an uptick in the feed barley market, plus a continued lack of buying interest in old crop malting barley supply from domestic consumers.


Soybean prices in the US continue to strengthen on the back of ongoing weather concerns in Argentina, as production prospects continue to decline. The market now has to establish if the Brazilian processors are able take up the slack from the decline in soymeal availability, or if this demand is going to switch to the US. Certainly, the investment funds have decided there is enough risk in the market for them to change their positions and have moved from a significant short to a long position, driving the market up in the process.

In Europe the rapeseed market remains flat with the firmer euro offsetting the upward move in soybeans. The record volume of third country imports that have come into the EU in the first half of the campaign continues to weigh on the market and a decline in crush looks likely to leave a significant carryout at the end of this campaign. The growing crops are reported to be in good order with few issues to note, and with the additional stocks from this campaign, the current bearish tone is likely to be carried into new crop.

The short-term market focus will now turn to the cold weather that is set to move in from the east. Temperatures are forecast to plummet during the early part of next week, and whilst crops have been winter hardened, a prolonged period of significant sub-zero temperatures has the potential to cause damage.

Overall, the European rapeseed market still has a bearish tone, but IF one of these weather events develops into a tangible impact on the crop, there is the potential for a change in market sentiment.


Old crop market premiums are being paid for Mascani over all other varieties, with buyers now in the May/June position.

The quality issues in the crop have been supportive to prices throughout the season, however with volume continuing to be offered into the mills to the end of the season, the price support is being eroded.

Generally, the winter crop in the ground is looking well and the market now looks towards spring drilling, with a close eye on the spring planting area.


Old crop beans remain supported on the week on the back of continued demand from the shippers and fresh demand from compounders looking to include beans in their summer formulations. This is a result of the scarcity of DDGs and the firming of other protein sources. Demand for old crop human consumption is non-existent.

There continues to be demand for good quality large blue peas. Buybacks for new crop marrowfats, large blues, yellow and maple peas are available, please contact your farm trader if interested.


Spring cereals remain limited across most species and varieties however small balances of certain varieties are now becoming available as suppliers finish processing. Please call your Gleadell farm trader for updated stock availability.

Kabuki, Campus and Daytona pea seed remains in good supply. Peas still show the best gross margin return on our gross margin calculations and should be strongly considered this spring. As a reminder on drilling dates, peas treated with Wakil-Xl (mainly marrowfats) should not be sown between 29 September and 1 April.

The maize season is in full swing with a lot of interest seen as growers confirm variety choice for next season. For bespoke and personal advice contact the Gleadell seed team, who will be happy to help advise on varieties best suited to your situation. Most popular varieties are still OK for supply however some new material is now becoming tight.

Spring OSR has seen massive yield gains throughout the last decade due to the hybridisation of the species. For growers looking at spring OSR we have top yielder Lumen amongst other established varieties such as Dodger and Mirakel.

Gleadell are also pleased to be offering the candidate hybrid OSR from Syngenta for this autumn – George has very high gross output potential, made up of high seed yield and good oil content, as well as having outstanding disease resistances.

£/€ £/$ €/$
1.1295 1.3875 1.228
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Feb18 126.00-136.00 129.00-144.00 155.00 292.00-297.00
May18 129.00-139.00 131.00-146.00 158.00 294.00-299.00
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although Gleadell take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the Gleadell Market Report , it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Gleadell will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

Gleadell Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

Gleadell trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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Lindsey House, Hemswell Cliff,
Gainsborough, Lincolnshire DN21 5TH.

Company Number: 534118