International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Market Report

Thursday 14 March 2019

Wheat

The USDA report did little to excite the trade last week as its increase in US wheat stocks was mostly expected. This encouraged funds to continue selling, pushing futures down to new contract lows, before ‘turnaround Tuesday’. The 20 plus cents per bushel rise in the market seems to be due to market shorts banking profits, as nothing fundamentally has altered regarding US wheat and exports remain behind the revised forecast.

EU prices followed the US lower to trade within a euro of the yearly low for new crop set last March. However, unlike the US, the following rebound has some substance behind it. Weekly exports, or more to the point, revised weekly exports, have increased over the past few weeks leaving the seasonal total now just 11% lower y/y, compared with 26% at the end of January. Recent North African wheat tenders will most likely be of French origin and, with a decent shipping line-up over the past couple of weeks, France’s farm ministry increased its projection for French exports beyond the EU, cutting ending stocks accordingly.

The UK market also eased to a new yearly low on new crop, taking out the previous level set back in March 2018. However, this was short lived as the market then rebounded on the global turn. However, wild swings in sterling continue to complicate an already unclear old crop market.

In summary, have we seen the bottom, or is the market pausing for breath? The US funds remain short, and it appears that along with some profit taking, a level of weather assurance is being built into prices, as cold wet conditions increase the risk of delay to US spring sowings. EU prices now seem to have found support on the rise of exports and recent trade, that will most likely be of EU origins, while the UK continues to be gripped by Brexit and its currency implications. This leaves a market that is hard to call.

Malting Barley

The EU old crop malting market has risen this week, mainly due to the firmer wheat market, but also due to a tightening supply. The new crop market is also firmer, but UK buyers are in no rush to commit at present. Spring planting progress has been slower over the last week due to the wet weather, but some areas are close to being finished. The south still has plenty of drilling to do but the forecast looks much better for next week.

Rapeseed

Global oilseeds markets have been relatively quiet, with little fresh input from the ongoing trade talks between US and China.

The weather conditions in South America remain positive for upcoming soy plantings and the weather in Europe is also benign, with little to threaten the developing crops as they come out of the winter.

Matif futures remain rangebound and crush margins are pretty good, but consumer cover is also well advanced. That means we will need some concrete evidence of Chinese rape oil business, and therefore fresh additional demand, to drive prices higher, given the current burdensome old crop stocks.

Domestic currency volatility continues to dominate our farmgate prices. The effectively indefinite rejection of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, which was carried by a very small majority, has been viewed as positive for sterling as it confirms the idea that there is no political drive for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit to take place. However, have we got enough time to come up with another solution?

Pulses

Buyers of old crop feed beans are now few and far between, with shippers now covered against existing export commitments and very few domestic shorts. With a large inverse to new crop, it is expected that old crop prices will drift lower in the coming months.

The new crop market is unchanged week on week. Estimates suggest that 80% of spring beans are now in the ground, significantly ahead of where we were this time last year.

UK feed beans continue to attract no demand from the domestic feed compounder at these levels, although we have seen some demand for aquaculture on the export market. If we see a return to average yields this year, then the UK market will need to attract some domestic demand.

New crop buybacks for large blue peas and marrowfats remain available. The Gleadell marketing pool for both peas and beans remains open.

 

Seed

Spring Seed

We have remaining stocks of spring cereals and beans available for immediate dispatch or collection. Please call your farm trader for up-to-date stocks.

Peas

There are still fields of OSR being ripped out in some locations due to severe damage from flea beetle larvae. Peas offer an excellent replacement as they are suitable for late drilling. This gives time to prepare a good seed-bed and helps to provide an excellent gross margin break crop. Peas also have excellent agronomic benefits, such as a large nitrogen legacy for the following wheat crop, as well as keeping rotations in balance by maintaining a cereal break.

Variety Focus – Aurelia Hybrid WOSR

Few hybrid OSR varieties come to the market and offer something totally unique. However, Aurelia from Limagrain builds on the success of the breeder its excellent OSR portfolio, bringing a whole new level of genetics crammed into one variety. Plenty of varieties in the past have benefitted from the double-phoma resistance and pod shatter traits combined, but Aurelia also boasts TuYV resistance, a 7 for light leaf spot and an 8 for stem-canker, making it the best agronomic merit of any variety currently available. Yield-wise it sits as the highest yielding hybrid on the AHDB candidate list, so all in all Aurelia provides growers with an exceptional package of yield, disease resistance and security. Early order offers are currently in place on Aurelia, plus our wider OSR variety portfolio. Please call your farm trader for more information.

Fertiliser

Granular Urea

The urea market remains relatively unchanged since last week, with wet and windy weather conditions halting applications. The sentiment in the UK market is cautious due to the volatility of sterling, however granular urea still remains the cheapest form of nitrogen available today. Few trades have been made on April shipments so far, but urea is currently at a nine-month low, with spot prices on farm varying depending on location.

Farmers concerned about their nitrogen losses from straight granular urea have been turning to ALZON® neo-N. Containing two active agents, a nitrification inhibitor and a urease inhibitor, ALZON® neo-N reduces nitrogen losses in both wet and hot weather, making it comparable to the performance of ammonium nitrate.

Ammonium Nitrate

The ammonium nitrate market remains stable following last week’s price corrections. Uncertainty in the market following this week in parliament has seen many growers making the most of CF terms, which could be pulled at any time. For any enquiries contact your Gleadell farm trader today or the fertiliser desk on 01427421237.

£/€ £/$ €/$
1.173 1.3255 1.1295
Feed Barley £ Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Mar19 130.00-140.00 153.00-167.00 243.00-253.00 298.00-303.00
May19 131.00-141.00 155.00-167.00 245.00-255.00 299.00-304.00
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although Gleadell take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the Gleadell Market Report , it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Gleadell will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

Gleadell Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

Gleadell trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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Lindsey House, Hemswell Cliff,
Gainsborough, Lincolnshire DN21 5TH.

Company Number: 534118