International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Wednesday 7 March 2018


Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soy mixed as talk of possible rains for Argentina may have triggered some selling. Corn marginally higher on Argentine crop concerns and potential for lower US acreage. Wheat lower as USDA slightly raised HRW crop ratings along with improving Russian logistics.
  • Yesterday’s USDA weekly export inspections report indicated YTD wheat exports running 7% behind vs a projected 10% decline y/y, corn 31% behind vs a projected 11% decline y/y, and soybeans 13% behind vs a projected 3% decline y/y.
  • Argentine weather forecast has limited rains for the week ahead with a front arriving for the weekend, but forecasts are mixed on amounts and coverage returning to drier conditions for most of next week. Temperatures seen average to below average over next 10 days.
  • Brazilian weather forecast has decent rains falling in the north over the next 5 days, with limited rains in the south. 6-10 days forecast sees rains for all areas of Brazil. Temperatures seen near average over next 10 days.
  • US weather sees things looking quiet for the southern plains for most of the week with the 6-10 day forecast now seeing limited rains for the region. Close to average temperatures are seen for the southern plains and below average for the northern plains over next 10 days.
  • Lower 2018 Argentine soy and corn crops could increase US 2018/19 corn, soybean and soymeal exports above trade estimates, which could help support futures and stress domestic logistics.
  • Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest a record 117.9mln t of soybeans from the 2017-18 crop, up from 116.2mln t previously according to Agrural. An expected rise in yields was cited as a key factor for the upward revision.
  • Australia’s 2018-19 wheat crop is expected to rise 11.8% from the previous season as La Nina weather conditions boost yields. Sowing will begin late next month, and despite a small decline in area, farmers will harvest 23.7mln t, up from 21.2mln t produced this year.
  • Most of Ukraine’s winter grain crops have survived the recent cold snap of this winter, with most of them in a good or satisfactory condition. UkrAgroConsult reported 86.6% of the crops were in good/satisfactory condition, compared with 80.8% y/y.
  • UkrAgroConsult have raised its forecast for the Ukraine’s 2018 wheat crop by 4.8% to 26.3mln t, mostly due to a larger harvested area (6.4mln ha with yield of 4.11t/ha). The higher output would allow the country to export 17mln t of wheat in the 2018-19 season potentially.
  • Egypt’s GASC purchased 175,000t of Russian wheat (5-15 April), at average cost of around $231fob (up $8.5 from their last tender 21st Feb). So far this season, Egypt’s wheat imports are running 14% ahead y/y at 5.865mln t, with Russia supplying 81%, or 4.73mln t of the total.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’18 Settle £143.95/t – up £1.05/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’18 Settle €165.50 – down €0.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT May ’18 Corn Settle  – $3.8825/bushel – up 1.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0700/bushel – down 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close – trading down 4-6c/bushel this morning

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1160

GBP USD    1.3870

EUR GBP    0.8955

EUR USD    1.2422

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Company Number: 534118