International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Wednesday 6 March 2019

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soybean lower as pessimistic comments on US/China trade negotiations cautioned traders. Corn higher as weather may become an issue with lingering winter conditions. Wheat higher on talk US wheat is cheap, spring planting delays and crop rating concerns.
  • US export report had wheat running 7% behind y/y, against a USDA forecast for a 11% yearly increase. Corn 36% ahead y/y against a 1% increase yearly forecast, with soybeans 33% behind y/y against a 12% yearly decline forecast.
  • US Mid-west weather forecast has a strong low bringing rains to the plains and southern areas by the weekend, with snow for the north. Below average temperatures gives way to moderate to average temperatures by the weekend and first half of next week.
  • US Delta and southeast weather forecast have a couple of rain systems over the next two weeks that will temporarily worsen fold conditions but, overall improvements will occur.
  • Brazilian weather forecast has moderate rains moving through the growing areas over the next 5-10 day period, which may start to bring some notice to harvest delays on 1st corn.
  • Argentine weather forecast has good rains moving through the growing areas into the weekend, before quieting down first half of next week, with another good rain system seen to move through the region middle of next week.
  • Australia’s wheat production is expected to jump 38% in 2019-20, but only if farmers receive desperately needed rains. In its first official wheat output estimate, ABARES pegged the crop at 23.9mln t, as planted area is expected to increase by roughly 20% y/y.
  • Russian wheat export prices continued to fall last week in line with global markets, although February’s exports of wheat, barley and corn are expected at 2.59mln t, down from 2.9mln t in January.
  • EU Commission forecast 2019-20 common wheat production in the EU at 140.7mln t vs 128.7mln t in 2018-19, with exports projected at 25.5mln t vs 18mln t expected in 2018-19.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £162.05/t – up £0.25/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €187.50 – up €0.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Soybeans Settle  – $9.1375/bushel – down 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Corn Settle  – $3.7575/bushel – up 3.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Wheat Settle – $4.6275/bushel – up 7.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1625

GBP USD    1.3145

EUR GBP    0.8595

EUR USD    1.1300

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