International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Wednesday 31 October 2018

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soybeans lower as Chinese meal prices fall to their lowest since July. Corn lower with December position nearing key 50-day moving average (3.6350). Wheat lower, although firming spreads, recent Egyptian purchase still seen as supportive.
  • NASS, in its initial report, pegged US winter wheat as 53% good/excellent vs 52% a year ago, with crop 78% planted vs 83% a year ago and 85% as the 5-yr average.
  • Weekly US export inspections had wheat exports running 23% behind y/y with USDA currently forecasting a 14% increase, corn 69% ahead y/y vs projected 2% increase and soybean 41% behind y/y vs projected 3% decline.
  • US is preparing to announce tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports by early December if talks next month between President Trump and Xi Jinping fail to ease the trade war.
  • USDA is not planning to extend an up $12bln aid package for farmers into 2019 officials commented, which was set-up to aid farmer’s losses due to the imposition of tariffs on American exports.
  • US Midwest weather forecast sees precipitation totals on the increase with incoming systems for the weekend, next week for the northern Midwest, and then frequent precipitation for the southern Midwest over the next 10 days. Temperatures above average, turning cooler.
  • US Southern Plains weather forecast has light rains across 55% of the region this week, before things turn dry through the weekend with a system bringing light/moderate rains early next week. Temperatures will be running above average.
  • Brazil weather forecast has not changed with active rainfall over the next 10 days with coverage around 75%.
  • Argentina weather forecast has light/moderate rainfall for most of the region this week, with lighter amounts seen in the north, before things turn dry into the weekend when another front brings light rains to around 55% of the region, favouring the west early next week.
  • Egypt’s strategic reserves of wheat are sufficient to cover its domestic needs until the beginning of March 2019, the supply minister reported.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £172.05/t – down £0.30/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €198.75 – down €1.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle – $8.3350/bushel – down 5.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle – $3.6475/bushel – down 2.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.9975/bushel – down 7.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1230

GBP USD    1.2735

EUR GBP    0.8895

EUR USD    1.1335

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