International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Wednesday 28 November 2018

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – Soybeans higher on more optimism regarding the US/China trade talks. Corn marginally higher, although markets lack a ‘catalyst’ and continues to follow wheat/soybeans. Wheat lower after market had posted a positive tone form turmoil in the Black Sea.
  • For the w/e 20th November, CFTC report showed managed money extended their Chicago wheat short position by 11164 contracts (now seen 37848 contracts short), while also extending their Kansas City wheat short position by 3943 (now seen 5214 contracts short).
  • For the w/e 20th November, CFTC report showed managed money switched their Chicago corn long position by 25826 contracts (now seen 7845 contracts short), while extending their Chicago soybean short position by 5221 contracts (now seen 60246 contracts short).
  • For w/e 15th November US all-wheat sales are running 14% behind y/y, shipments 19% behind vs USDA forecast of a 14% increase y/y, corn sales 13% ahead y/y, shipments 80% ahead y/y vs forecast of a 1% increase y/y.
  • US President Trump said he expects to move ahead with raising tariffs on $200bln of Chinese imports to 25% from 10% currently, as it was ‘highly unlikely’ he would accept China’s request to hold off on the increase.
  • Brazil’s weather forecast has no major changes as close to average rainfall is seen for most of the country’s growing areas.
  • Argentina’s weather forecast will see limited rainfall over the short term, with light to moderate rains seen for most areas into the weekend and early next week, before a system brings moderate to heavy rains by the middle pf next week.
  • Argentinian wheat is expected to become bullish after December/January as supplies get tighter and the carry per month gets stronger, market sources predict.
  • Russia’s November exports of wheat, barley and corn, are expected to be 4.35mln t, down from 5.04mln t in October, SovEcon reported.
  • Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported that grain exports had totalled 16.58mln t a/o Nov 21st, up 4.9% y/y, with 8.8mln t of wheat, 3mln t of barley and 4.4mln t of corn shipped abroad so far this marketing season.
  • Ukraine’s Ag Ministry says grain export volumes could fall in case of more Russian aggression in the Azov Sea. Putting the possible impact level as medium.
  • Dry weather in early autumn hampered the sowing and development of grains in Eastern Europe, but most crops in most parts of the EU have started the season well, the EU crop’s monitoring unit MARS reported.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £173.50/t – down £0.50/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €198.75 – down €0.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Jan ’19 Soybeans Settle  – $8.7550/bushel – up 13.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle  – $3.5650/bushel – up 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.9800/bushel – down 9.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1335

GBP USD    1.2790

EUR GBP    0.8820

EUR USD    1.1280

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