International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Wednesday 21 November 2018

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soybeans higher as reports of pods shattering due to cold weather could lower yield. Corn lower on Chinese weakness following news of expanding swine fever, slower pig expansion. Wheat higher on reports of declining Russian supplies & rising prices.
  • This week’s export inspections had US wheat exports running 18% behind y/y, vs the USDA forecasting a 14% increase y/y. Corn 80% ahead y/y vs a 1% increase y/y, and soybean 43% behind y/y vs a 11% decline y/y.
  • Wire story report President Trump’s ‘America First’ trade policies have led to a 94% cut in US soybean exports to China, forcing farmers to stockpile beans on hopes that the trade dispute ends soon.
  • Brazil weather forecast has no major changes as close to average rainfall looks to cover most of Brazil’s growing regions over the near to mid-term.
  • Argentina weather forecast has no major changes as mostly dry weather looks to dominate the growing areas over the near to mid-term.
  • Pakistan’s Economic Coordination Committee will permit the export of 500,000t of wheat in a statement from the finance minister.
  • UkrAgroConsult reports Romanian maize production now seen at 12.9mln t, which would make them the largest EU producing country replacing France.
  • Russian wheat exports rose slightly last week on seasonal declines in supplies, IKAR report, citing Russia has already exported more than 22mln t of grain, from the 38-39mln t that the Ag Ministry estimates to be available in the 2018-19 marketing season.
  • About 85% of Ukrainian winter grain crops were in good/satisfactory condition a/o Nov 15th, the Ag Ministry reported, with the remaining 15% in a weak condition. Ukrainian farmers have sown a total of 7.09mln ha of winter grains compared with 6.9mln a year earlier.
  • Ukraine’s acting Ag Minister has raised the 2018 corn crop forecast to an-all time high of 34.8mln t, adding that farmers had harvested 66.4mln t of total grain a/o Monday, with an average yield of 4.65t/ha against 57.3mln t on the same date a year earlier.
  • News has surfaced this morning that Ukraine’s national railway operator has imposed temporary limits on grain shipments to the country’s major sea terminals in the Black Sea ports of Odessa and Mykolayiv.
  • EU 3rd country soft wheat exports in the 2018-19 marketing season had reached 6mln t (France & Romania account for 76% of the total volume) a/o Nov 18th compared with 8.2mln t last season, down 27% official data showed, with imports up 41% y/y at 1.75mln t.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £168.25/t – up £0.50/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €198.75 – up €2.00/tonne from previous close

CBOT Jan ’19 Soybeans Settle  – $8.8100/bushel – up 7.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle  – $3.6125/bushel – down 1.00 cent/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0075/bushel – up 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1225

GBP USD    1.2780

EUR GBP    0.8905

EUR USD    1.1385

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