International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Wednesday 12 December 2018

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – Soybeans higher in talk that China may soon buy US beans. Corn marginally higher as lower domestic ethanol usage offers resistance. Wheat lower on higher US/Global stocks, although increasing global demand for US supplies may still support values.
  • USDA raises 2018-19 US wheat and corn stocks, keeps soybean unchanged while also raising global 2018-19 stocks for all three commodities – market reaction muted as focus remains of US/China trade talks and renewed optimism.
  • US export inspection report had wheat exports running 16% behind y/y vs the USDA forecasting a 14% increase y/y. Corn 76% ahead y/y vs 1% increase forecast, and soybean 41% behind y/y vs a 11% decline forecast.
  • Brazil’s weather forecast has no major changes with rains in the north this week and a front moving into the south bringing soaking rains by the weekend and early next week. Things in the north look to quiet down in the over the weekend and early next week.
  • Argentina’s weather forecast has no major changes as a front brings rains to most areas over the next few days. Things then quiet down for the weekend and first half of next week.
  • CONAB reported that Brazilian farmers will produce a record 120.1mln t crop of soybeans in the 2018-19 season, for which planting is close to finished, with 91.1mln t of corn, up from this season’s weather related 80.8mln t.
  • China will import 2.5mln t of corn in the 2018-19 crop year, the Ag Ministry reported, raising its forecast from 1.5mln t last month, but giving no explanation for the revision. Talk is that domestic corn usage is increasing to compensate for lower sorghum/barley imports.
  • Ukraine has harvested a record 70mln t of grain in 2018, the Prime Minister reported, citing an increase in the maize harvest for the increase.
  • France’s farm ministry forecast the country’s winter soft wheat area for the 2019 harvest at 5.03mln t ha, up 3.5% y/y, but estimated that the 2019 winter rapeseed area would drop 23.6% y/y to 1.23mln ha after a drought-hit sowing season.
  • UK sterling continues to be volatile on Brexit concerns and confirmation this morning that PM Theresa May will be faced with a leadership challenge.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £177.40/t – down £0.60/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €205.00 – up €0.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT Jan ’19 Soybeans Settle – $9.1500/bushel – up 5.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Corn Settle – $3.8475/bushel – up 0.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Wheat Settle – $5.2100/bushel – down 4.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1055

GBP USD    1.2530

EUR GBP    0.9045

EUR USD    1.1335

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