International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Tuesday 27 February 2018


Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soy higher, but well off the highs, as dry Argentine weather supports, but large Brazilian farmer selling/low US exports weighed. Corn higher on decent US exports, but talk of lower S African crop supports. Wheat higher on talk of lower monthly crop ratings.
  • CFTC reports showed that a/o 20th February, managed funds extended their Chicago wheat short by 10208 contracts (now seen 67039 contracts short), but trimmed long KCBT position by 1585 contracts and long Minneapolis position by 2432 contracts.
  • CFTC reports showed that a/o 20th February, managed funds switched their Chicago corn position buying 29288 contracts (now seen 18674 contracts long), and extended their long soybean position by 56242 contracts (now seen 99111 contracts long).
  • For the w/e Feb 15th, US all-wheat sales are running 12% behind y/y, with shipments 5% behind y/y vs the 10% projected decline by the USDA. Corn sales 12% behind y/y, shipments 29% behind y/y vs the 11% projected decline by the USDA.
  • US is concerned that China might impose trade barriers on US grain sales if trade relations between the world’s two largest economies worsen, reported the trade counsel to the US agriculture secretary.
  • Argentine weather forecast has limited rainfall for most of the week with better coverage, but still light rains and isolated thunderstorms are seen by the end of the week. 6-10 day forecast sees below average rainfall – temperatures to run average/above average next 6-10 days.
  • Brazilian weather forecast has light to moderate rains seen falling in most of Brazil over the next 5 days, and in the 6-10 day forecast. Average temperatures are seen occurring in most of Brazil over next 6-10 days.
  • US weather sees things looking quiet for the plains with some rain coming into the eastern third of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas by the end of the week. 6-10 day forecast sees fairly quiet weather for most of the plains.
  • Brazil’s 2017-18 soybean harvest reached 25% of planned area, compared with 27% 5-year average and 36% at the same time last year, AgRural Consultancy reported.
  • Brazilian soy farmers are expected to harvest a record 117.5mln t of beans in the 2017-18 crop, Agroconsult reported. The forecast was up from last month’s 114.1mln t and would be above the record harvest of the previous crop year of 114.6mln t.
  • China’s imports of soybeans from the US in Jan18 fell 14% from Jan17, customs data showed, as Brazil grabbed a larger slice of the world’s biggest market for the oilseed with higher-protein beans.
  • South Africa is expected to harvest 33% less maize in 2018, compared with a record crop in the previous season, after a decrease in plantings and low rainfall in the western part of the maize belt. Crop estimated at 11.301mln t vs 16.82mln t last year.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’18 Settle £139.80/t – up £0.35/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’18 Settle €165.50 – up €1.00/tonne from previous close

CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle  – $3.6875/bushel – up 1.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.5950/bushel – up 7.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1315

GBP USD    1.3950

EUR GBP    0.8835

EUR USD    1.2330

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Company Number: 534118