International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Tuesday 12 December 2017


Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soy lower as weather maps show more normal S Am rains. Corn lower on S Am weather/concerns over NAFTA negotiations with another round this week. Wheat lower (new contract lows) on slow US exports/general lack of global bullish news.
  • US agriculture cooperatives are building new soybean crushing plants at the fastest rate in two decades, as farmers prepare to sow another record area with soybeans. Plans to increase crushing capacity by 5% in 2019 to around an estimated 2bln bushels.
  • President Trump’s administration celled two lawmakers from the US corn belt to convince them to join talks about potential changes to biofuels policy to ease the burden on oil refineries. Clearest sign administration is seeking to mediate the long-running dispute over the RFS.
  • S Am weather forecast has some rains for southern areas of Argentina in the middle of the week, limited precipitation seen elsewhere in Argentina and southern Brazil over next 5 days. 6-10 days forecast has average/above average rainfall for most of Argentina/Brazil.
  • BAGE estimated Brazilian soy plantings 53.2% complete vs 42.5% last week and 57.6% last year – corn plantings seen 40.4% complete vs 38.2% last week, but below the 50% that is considered normal  – wheat harvest 44.7% complete, with crop estimate unchanged at 17mln t.
  • Brazilian farmers are expected to produce 112.9mln t of soybeans in the 2017-18 crop, up from 110.2mln t seen in November, according to AgRural. Estimated planted area will be 34.8mln ha up from 34.655mln seen in November.
  • Indian area planted under wheat, the main winter crop, is seen down 6% on the previous year as adverse weather has caused planting delays.
  • China has more than doubled its purchases of Canadian barley, taking advantage of bargain prices due to abundant high-quality supplies. Extra purchases come at the expense of Australia and the EU, the world’s two biggest barley-exporting area.
  • Imports of cheap Argentine biodiesel, which the EU permitted this autumn, are starting to cause problems to EU rapeseed crushing mills and may force then to cut production, with the outlook in the new year looking uncertain.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’18 Settle £141.95/t – down £0.15/t from previous close

Paris May ’18 Settle €164.25 – down €0.50/t from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.3650/bushel – down 3.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $3.8775/bushel – down 4.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1330

GBP USD    1.3345

EUR GBP    0.8830

EUR USD    1.1785

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