International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Thursday 17 January 2019

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soybeans higher as South America concerns support. Corn higher as US crush number/South American weather supports. Wheat higher on reports Russian Ag Minister had recommended exporters ‘hold-down’ export sales, although this was later denied.
  • US EPA rule to allow sales of higher-ethanol blends of gasoline year-round is being delayed by a partial government shut-down.
  • US soybean processing pace jumped in December to the third-highest level on record, at 171.579mln bushels (4.67mln t), the NOPA reported.
  • Brazilian weather sees no change as decent rains seen for all regions except the far northeast. Heaviest rains in the south, with the 6-10 outlook seeing average/bit below average rainfall for all region, except the far northeast where below average is seen.
  • Argentine weather has rainfall ending over the next couple of days, turning settled over the weekend and into the first half of next week, before another soaking rain event comes to all areas later next week.
  • A drought stressing Brazilian soybean fields in top producing states is leading local agribusinesses to cut the country’s 2018-19 crop forecast, as harvests start in Parana and Mato Grosso.
  • China will likely sell off the last of its aging corn stocks this year, an agriculture ministry official said, returning stocks to ‘normal levels’.
  • Russian wheat demand from Turkey to strengthen despite price increases, as country has already imported around 2.5mln t of wheat this marketing year.
  • Russian Ag Ministry said it was not discussing imposing any limits on grain exports abroad, citing it was expecting a grain harvest of 114.3mln t this year.
  • Ukraine’s grain exports a/o Jan 16th have risen to 25.7mln t so far in the 2018-19 marketing season, from 22.1mln t at the same period a year ago, with the Ag Ministry saying total exports could rise to 47.2mln t, up from 39.4mln t last year.
  • Theresa May’s Government survived a non-confidence vote last night, as she pushes for cross-party consensus to find a way forward for Brexit, although Jeremy Corbyn has already asked for the threat of a no-deal exit to be ruled out prior to joining talks.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £174.05/t – down £1.45/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €204.00 – down €0.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Soybeans Settle – $8.9450/bushel – up 1.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Corn Settle – $3.7400/bushel – up 2.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Wheat Settle – $5.12500/bushel – up 1.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1300

GBP USD    1.2875

EUR GBP    0.8845

EUR USD    1.1390

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