International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Thursday 15 November 2018

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soy higher on hopes that China/US could negotiate an end to the tariff war ahead of the G-20 meeting. Corn virtually unchanged, although Ukraine reported corn exports up 67% y/y. Wheat lower as prices continue to sag amidst weak export prospects.
  • US weekly export inspections had US wheat exports running 21% behind last year against the USDA currently forecasting a 14% increase y/y. Corn exports 86% ahead y/y vs an unchanged projection, and soybeans 42% behind y/y vs a 3 % decline projected.
  • US Midwest weather forecast has no major changes with light to moderate rain/snow seen for this week and little in the way of precipitation seen for the most of next week. Temperatures will be below average with some warming back to average early next week.
  • US Southern Plains weather forecast has little precipitation for the rest of the week, weekend and early next week. Temperatures will see some warming towards average into the weekend, and early next week.
  • Brazil weather forecast has close to average rains falling in most of Brazil’s growing regions over the near to mid-term.
  • Argentina weather forecast is quiet the rest of the week, then a front brings light to moderate rainfall early during the weekend. Early next week is looking dry with light hit and miss rains later in the week.
  • South American farmers are expected to produce more soybeans in 2018/19, an industry analyst said, as they take advantage of a trade war that had curbed US exports to the world’s top buyer China.
  • Heavy rains have delayed harvesting and reduced wheat quality in Argentina over several days, and now Brazil’s top producing region is experiencing excessive rains, halting harvest and damaging quality.
  • Iraq’s wheat output was estimated at 2mln t, down from last year’s 2.3mln t, with the Trade Minister indicating they are seeking to boost Russian wheat imports. This is bad news for the US, Canada or Australia who have been recent shippers to the country.
  • Ukraine’s grain exports from sea ports rose 63% m/m to 3.5mln t in October from 2.2mln t seen during September, APK-Inform reported.
  • Germany’s winter rapeseed planted area for the 2019 harvest will be reduced by 18% on the year to around 1mln ha, as German farmers indicated that unusually dry autumn weather following the summer’s heatwave, left ground too parched to carry out sowings in some areas.
  • Farm office FranceAgriMer cut its forecast of French 2018-19 soft wheat exports within the EU to 7.8mln t from 7.9mln t last month. Non-EU projection was left unchanged at 8.75mln t, raising 2018-19 ending stocks to 2.5mln t from 2.4mln t last month.
  • UK prices fell as sterling rose yesterday due to PM gaining cabinet approval over Brexit agreement. However, this morning the resignation of the Brexit Secretary and some apparent ‘unease’ from other government ministers has seen sterling sharply decline.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £167.20/t – unchanged from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €201.00 – down €0.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle – $8.7050/bushel – up 3.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle – $3.6700/bushel – up 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0300/bushel – down 4.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1330

GBP USD    1.2785

EUR GBP    0.8825

EUR USD    1.1285

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Company Number: 534118