International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Thursday 13 December 2018

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – Soybeans higher on reported Chinese buying. Corn higher on support from soy complex, but weak ethanol production numbers seen as resistance. Wheat higher on Egyptian tender showing a price nearly $6 higher from last week’s tender.
  • News wires reporting that Chinese state-owned companies bought at least 500,000t of US soybeans in the first major purchase since Trump’s/Xi Jinping’s meeting in early December.
  • US farmers who participated in US crop subsidy program, reported ‘prevented plantings’ a/o Dec 3rd of 0.929mln acres of corn, 0.276mln acres of soybeans, and 0.375mln acres of wheat.
  • Brazil’s weather forecast still looks for a front to bring fairly soaking rains to the southern growing regions by the weekend and first half of next week. Rain actively looks to be quieter in the north, but not rain free.
  • Argentina’s weather forecast has rains continuing for the rest of the week with things quieting down for the weekend and most of next week.
  • Chinese soybean crush margins dropped further this week and processors are now suffering their biggest losses in 18 months on dismal domestic demand for animal feed and higher supplies.
  • Egypt’s GASC purchased 180,000t of wheat (120 Russian 60 Romanian) for February 1-10 shipment. In total, 7 offers were received (5 Russian 1 Romanian and 1 US), which represents a decline in offers.
  • This year, 22.8mln t of grain was harvested in Kazakhstan, the Deputy Ag Minister reported, slightly higher than the 22.7mln t in 2017.
  • SovEcon reported that Russian wheat exports in December could fall 35% y/y to 2.8mln t. They see inventories starting to decline and recent storms have hampered shipments from their southern ports.
  • Ukraine’s State Consumer Service reported wheat exports at 9.7mln t for the season so far (starting July 1st 2018) compared with 10.7mln t last year.
  • Farm office FranceAgriMer raised its forecast of French wheat stocks at the end of the 2018-19 season to 2.7mln t, up from 2.5mln t last month, reflecting a 100,000t cut in feed demand (4.9mln t) and a 100,000t decrease in EU exports, now seen at 7.7mln t.
  • UK’s PM Theresa May survived the no-confidence vote last night by a majority of 83, but stated that she will not leading the party into the next election due in 2022.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £177.85/t – up £0.45/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €206.75 – up €1.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Jan ’19 Soybeans Settle – $9.2000/bushel – up 5.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Corn Settle – $3.8525/bushel – up 0.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Wheat Settle – $5.2650/bushel – up 5.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1130

GBP USD    1.2660

EUR GBP    0.8980

EUR USD    1.1370

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Company Number: 534118