International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Thursday 10 January 2019

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soybeans higher with talk of the potential for a US trade deal with China helping. Corn higher moving above key technical levels (moving averages). Wheat higher on talk of new export business to Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt, but fell after the Egypt tender result.
  • US government is still in partial shutdown, still no key USDA data expected. Trade talks in Beijing between US/China have concluded with positive comments coming out of the meeting, with China pledging to purchase a substantial amount of US ag products.
  • Brazilian weather sees fairly decent rains for the southern growing regions of Brazil into the far northwest over the near term, with limited rains elsewhere. The 6-10 day period forecast is now calling for decent rains for all regions except the far northwest.
  • Argentine weather still sees a front bringing rains to most of Argentina today through Friday, with the 6-10 day forecast continuing with fairly ample rains.
  • Brazil has harvested two enormous soybean crops in a row and will likely make it a third in 2019. However, the size of the crop may not be as large as initially expected, due to precipitation deficits in top-producing states, with analysts starting to cut their harvest estimates.
  • US is thought to have sold two cargoes of wheat to Algeria, in their reported 550,000t purchase, but confirmation from US export sales data will be obviously delayed due to the government shutdown.
  • Egypt’s GASC purchased 415,000t (295,000t Feb 20-28 shipment and 120,000t Mar 1-10 shipment) all from Russia at levels similar to their previous tender, but still the highest prices for 4 years. US offer was the cheapest (on a FOB basis), but lost out on the freight disadvantage.
  • Most Ukrainian winter crops are in good and satisfactory condition, the Ag Ministry reported, placing only 14% of winter grains and 8% of rapeseed crops in weak condition.
  • France exported 1.26mln t of soft wheat in November, including 683,000t shipped outside the EU. Cumulative soft wheat exports since the start of the 2018-19 season have reached 6.31mln t, up 3% y/y, with 3.48mln t shipped outside of the EU, up 26% y/y.
  • French farm office AgriMer lowered their forecast of 2018-19 non-EU soft wheat exports from 8.8mln t to 8.7mln t, leaving intra-EU exports unchanged at 7.7mln t. Projected end-season stocks were lifted accordingly to 2.8mln t, up from 2.7mln t previously.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £178.40/t – down £0.35/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €206.25 – down €0.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Soybeans Settle – $9.2400/bushel – up 5.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Corn Settle – $3.8200/bushel – up 2.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Wheat Settle – $5.2000/bushel – up 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1075

GBP USD    1.2765

EUR GBP    0.9025

EUR USD    1.1525

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Company Number: 534118