International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Monday 6 November 2017


Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soy seen lower on improving South American weather. Corn lower on talk of yield hike in this week’s USDA report. Wheat virtually unchanged as support came from Iraqi purchase and short-covering, as market continues to consolidate from recent low.
  • CFTC reports showed that a/o 31st October managed funds extended their Chicago wheat short by 26910 contracts (now seen 110875 contracts short) and also extended their short KCBT wheat position to 21393 contracts, while continuing to trim long Minneapolis position.
  • CFTC reports showed that a/o 31st October managed funds extended their Chicago corn short by 28369 contracts (now seen 202763 contracts short), but continued to trim their long Chicago soybean position by 8634 contracts (now seen 40612 contracts long).
  • Analytical firm Informa raised its estimate of the US 2017 corn yield to 173.4pba (previous estimate of 170.5pba) and now see the crop at 14.410bln bushels. They trimmed their soybean yield forecast to 49.7pbsm (50.0pba previously) projecting the crop at 4,447bln bushels.
  • A bipartisan group in the US House of Representatives, has called on the EPA to recognise ‘the significant pitfalls and costs’ of renewable fuel standards in its future rulemaking, and enact ‘well-rounded’ biofuel policies.
  • South American weather is improving, with rains in Northern Brazil and drier weather in the South, while Argentina had rains over last weekend before turning drier this week.
  • Brazil is expected to win a larger share of China’s soybean imports in coming months, hitting US exporters during the peak marketing season. China is expected to purchase about 5mln t of Soybeans in the final quarter of 2017, double the 2.48mln t of last year.
  • Iraq purchased 450,000t of US HRW out of tender on Thursday, which gave the US some support. Initial US winter wheat crop ratings were also lower than trade expectation, which should limit downside in market, although funds again increased their Chicago short.
  • Following Thursdays BoE £ sterling interest rate increase to 0.5%, £ fell c. 2%, before regaining some of the losses on Friday and this morning. UK LIFFE May17 market firmed c. £2 purely on currency before closing down 85p on Fridays close.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’17 Settle  £138.15/t – down £0.85/t from previous close

Paris Dec ’17 Settle €162.00– down €1.00/t from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4825/bushel – down 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.2575/bushel – down 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1295

GBP USD    1.3110

EUR GBP    0.8850

EUR USD    1.1605

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Company Number: 534118