International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Monday 5 November 2018

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soybeans higher on talk of lower US yields. Corn higher on talk of lower US yields. Wheat virtually unchanged.
  • For the w/e 30th October, CFTC report showed managed money extended their Chicago wheat short position by 18612 contracts (now seen 44717 contracts short), while also trimming their Kansas City wheat long position by 11268 contracts (now seen 10444 contracts long).
  • For the w/e 30th October, CFTC report showed managed money trimmed their Chicago corn long position by 11112 contracts (now seen 14269 contracts long), while also extending their Chicago soybean short position by 26883 contracts (now seen 71305 contracts short).
  • For the w/e 25th October, all-wheat sales running 15% behind y/y, shipments 21% behind vs the USDA forecasting a 14% increase, corn sales 28% ahead y/y, shipment 76% ahead y/y vs USDA forecasting a 2% increase.
  • US Midwest weather forecast has a rain system for the northwest early this week, frequent rainfall continues for the Southeast first half of this week. Temperatures are seen a bit above average, turning cooler than average for most of next week.
  • US Southern Plains weather forecast is dry for the western half over the next 10 days, with a system bringing light to moderate rainfall for the east early this week. Temperatures seen running above average.
  • Brazil weather forecast sees average rainfall amounts for the near to mid-term with 75% coverage.
  • Argentina weather forecast sees a mixture of sun and rain over the next 10 days with coverage around 75%.
  • The BAGE commented that a new round of frosts over the week ahead could put additional downward pressure on the country’s wheat crop.
  • Argentine farmers are planting soybean more slowly this year, with rains in various regions seen hampering progress, according to the BAGE. Planting on just 3.8% of the area expected to be sown a/o Oct 31st. Corn much more advanced with 35.5% sown.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £172.25/t – up £1.20/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €200.75 – unchanged from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle – $8.7525/bushel – up 6.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle – $3.7125/bushel – up 4.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0875/bushel – up 0.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1435

GBP USD    1.3020

EUR GBP    0.8740

EUR USD    1.1380

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