International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Monday 29 October 2018


Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soybeans higher on strength in other grains, a weaker US$ and talk of an oversold short-term technical. Corn higher as wheat surges and weaker US$. Wheat higher on weaker US$ and on ideas US is now more competitively priced after Egyptian sale.
  • For the w/e 23rd October, CFTC report showed managed money extended their Chicago wheat short position by 9312 contracts (now seen 26105 contracts short), while also trimming their Kansas City wheat long position by 6462 contracts (now seen 21712 contracts long).
  • For the w/e 23rd October, CFTC report showed managed money extended their Chicago corn short position by 5227 contracts (now seen 25381 contracts long), while also extending their Chicago soybean short position by 8054 contracts (now seen 44422 contracts short).
  • For the w/e 18th October, all-wheat sales running 17% behind y/y, shipments 22% behind vs the USDA forecasting a 14% increase, corn sales 32% ahead y/y, shipment 83% ahead y/y vs USDA forecasting a 2% increase.
  • US Midwest weather forecast had light rains mainly through the eastern region over the weekend, with rains again in the east with light amounts on Tuesday, followed by some additional rains and maybe some snow second half of the week. Temperatures seen below average.
  • US Southern Plains weather forecast looks mostly dry through the first half of the week, with rains seen for eastern sections of the region second half of the week. Temperatures will be running below average.
  • Australian ABARES cuts estimate of 2018-19 wheat production to 16.6mln t, projecting crop production in east Australia to drop 53% below the 20-yr average, with NSW the worst hit at 65% below and only partially offset by a better crop in Western Australia.
  • Brazil weather continues with a wet pattern for most areas over the near to mid-term with coverage around 75%.
  • Argentina weather has widely scattered rains with amounts light to moderate over the next 5 days with 45% coverage. The 6-10 day forecast has moderate rainfall through the region.
  • South African corn farmers intend to plant 6% more hectares in the 2018-19 season, planting 2.448mln ha compared to 20318mln ha planted for 2017-18, when yields were affected by unfavourable weather conditions at the start of the season.
  • Egypt’s GASC purchases 470,000t of wheat for 11-20 December (350 Russian, 60 Ukrainian and 60 US SRW). US sale achieved as offered price cut by $2.50, with sole French offer $12-13 too expensive and Romanian wheat between $5-8 too expensive.
  • Farm office FranceAgriMer estimates 91% of the French grain maize harvested by Oct 21st vs 81% a week earlier, and compared with 70% a year ago. Also estimates 51% of French soft wheat sown vs 32% a week earlier and 58% a year earlier.
  • EU Commission cut its estimate of 2018 production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in the EU union to 127.4mln t, down from 128.1mln t last month and compared with 142.1mln t in 2017. Kept unchanged its estimate of 2018-19 non-EU wheat exports at 20mln t.
  • Strategie Grains forecasts that the soft wheat area in the EU would rise by 5.5% next year to 24.2mln ha, although it said rains would be needed by mid-November to help sowing. Reduced its estimate of the area sown with rapeseed to 6.22mln t, down from 6.32mln previously.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £173.00/t – up £2.90/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €202.50 – up €3.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle – $8.4500/bushel – up 3.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle – $3.6775/bushel – up 6.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0525/bushel – up 18.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1255

GBP USD    1.2835

EUR GBP    0.8885

EUR USD    1.1405

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