International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Monday 28 January 2019

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soybeans higher on positive talk ahead of this week’s trade talks. Corn higher, as per soybean, with Chinese government encouraging end users to secure farmers’ stocks. Wheat lower, despite rising global prices and supportive news re Russian exports.
  • There is talk that this week’s US/China trade talks may be extended, as the US and China may be working on a grain deal that might include annual imports of $30bln of US Ag products.
  • Brazilian weather has no major changes as in the near term good rains are seen for all areas except the far south and continuing for the northeast – 6-10 day forecast has more limited rainfall for all areas except the far northwest.
  • Argentine weather has no major changes as good rains are seen for all areas except the northern growing areas this week.
  • Brazil’s Parana state, the country’s second biggest producing state, cut its forecast for the 2018-19 soybean season after a dry spell early in December damaged some areas, even as conditions improved recently when rains returned.
  • China’s December wheat imports were reported at 217,513t, up 20.2% y/y, however the yearly figure (January-December) was reported at 2,876,127t down 33.1% y/y.
  • Imports of wheat by Indonesian flour mills this year are expected to rise by 5-6%. In 2018 wheat imports were estimated at 8.35mln t, with data showing Jan-Nov 2018 total wheat imports at 9.19mln t, which includes imports for other usages, such as animal feed.
  • SovEcon increased their Russian wheat export estimate to 35.6mln t, from 35.1mln t previously, but warned that there is a risk the government may impose export restrictions as the volume nears the official forecast of 42mln t for all grains.
  • IKAR raised Russian 2019-20 wheat production to 76.5-77.0mln t, up 7% from a previous forecast, following a fairly benign winter season thus far.
  • IGC raised its forecast for world wheat production in the 2018-19 season, partially driven by upward revisions to crops in Russia and India, increasing the forecast by 8mln t to 737mln t, although it still remains the first total decline in six years.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £172.25/t – down £0.75/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €206.75 – down €0.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Soybeans Settle  – $9.2525/bushel – up 9.2500 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Corn Settle – $3.8025/bushel – up 3.2500 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Wheat Settle – $5.2000/bushel – down 1.1500 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1540

GBP USD    1.3175

EUR GBP    0.8665

EUR USD    1.1415

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