International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Monday 18 February 2019

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soybean higher as NOPA crush numbers provided support. Corn unchanged as news that China will return to the US this week for trade talks helps to support. Wheat lower as French wheat seen gaining the majority of the Algerian tender, firmer US$ also weighs.
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping said trade talks with the US will continue in Washington this week and he hopes the two sides will be able to reach a mutually beneficial deal in the upcoming negotiations.
  • USDA is set to publish planting intentions on March 29th, which will establish the initial point for the 2019 corn and soybean seasons, although without more clarity on the US-China situation soon, the helpfulness of the report could be limited.
  • Brazilian weather forecast remains with moderate rainfall for most of the growing regions throughout the next 6-10 days period.
  • Argentine weather forecast is still mostly dry through early this week, with moderate rainfall seen arriving in the middle of this week, with heavier amounts now being seen than previously forecast.
  • China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said China will expand the soybean planting area this year, although the world’s largest buyer has promised to increase imports from the US to help cut trade surplus with the US.
  • After producing surplus wheat in the past two seasons, Pakistan has decided to export 500,000t of the grain ahead of the arrival of new stock from March-April 2019.
  • Russia’s second-biggest bank VTB is buying one of the biggest grain terminals at the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk, in a surprise move that gives the state lender more control over the country’s main deep-sea grain export hub.
  • Most of Ukraine’s winter grain crops sown for the 2019 harvest are in good or satisfactory condition, the Ag Ministry reported, citing 14% of the crops in a weak state.
  • Strategie Grains left its forecast for EU cereal production unchanged, still expecting an 11% y/y increase in the 2019-20 season – biggest rise will be seen in soft wheat production, which will rise 15% to 146.4mln t from 127mln t this year.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £168.15/t – down £2.25/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €196.25 – down €3.25/tonne from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Soybeans Settle  – $9.0750/bushel – up 4.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Corn Settle  – $3.7475/bushel – unchanged from previous close

CBOT Mar ’19 Wheat Settle – $5.0425/bushel – down 2.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1405

GBP USD    1.2905

EUR GBP    0.8760

EUR USD    1.1315

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