International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Monday 12 November 2018

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soybeans higher from speculation that the US-Chine trade tensions may ease heading into the G-20 meeting. Corn lower, pressured by a higher US$ and weak crude oil markets. Wheat lower, as market continues to be pressured by weak sales/shipments.
  • For the w/e 6th November, CFTC report showed managed money trimmed their Chicago wheat short position by 3574 contracts (now seen 41143 contracts short), while extending their Kansas City wheat long position by 699 contracts (now seen 11143 contracts long).
  • For the w/e 6th November, CFTC report showed managed money extended their Chicago corn long position by 12360 contracts (now seen 26629 contracts long), while trimming their Chicago soybean short position by 26227 contracts (now seen 45078 contracts short).
  • For the w/e 1st November, all-wheat sales running 15% behind y/y, shipments 20% behind vs the USDA forecasting a 14% increase. Corn sales running 16% ahead y/y, shipments 85% ahead y/y vs USDA forecasting unchanged on the year.
  • Farmers who participated in US crop subsidy programs reported ‘prevented plantings’ a/o Nov 1st of 0.929mln aces of corn, 0.276mln acres of soybeans and 0.374mln acres of wheat. Compared with 0.928,lm, 0.276mln and 0.374mln respectively last month.
  • US Midwest weather forecast sees precipitation finishing up in the east with another system of light snow to move through early this week. Dry weather then returns – temperatures continue to run below average.
  • US Southern Plains weather forecast has a system bringing snow early this week, then things become quiet for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be below normal with a slight warming towards the end of the week.
  • Brazil weather forecast has no major changes as they continue to see hit and miss rains in the north, with dry weather elsewhere over the near term. Soaking rains are still seen in the extended forecast with coverage around 85%.
  • Argentina weather forecast brings good rains early this week, with dry weather returning the second half of the week, until further rains are seen for the weekend. Some of the rain could bring flooding, especially in the south.
  • Ukraine grain exports have matched last season’s level to date of around 14mln t, mainly due to higher corn exports, the Ag Ministry reported, citing total exports could rise to 42.5mln t from 39.4mln t last season.
  • France exported 1.15mln t of soft wheat in September, including 640,000t shipped outside the EU, with Algeria the largest destination with almost 570,000t. YTD exports have reached 3.93mln t, up 6% y/y, with non-EU shipments up 25% y/y at 2.18mln t.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £167.00/t – unchanged from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €199.00 – down €1.00/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle – $8.7525/bushel – up 7.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle – $3.6975/bushel – down 3.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0200/bushel – down 5.75 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1410

GBP USD    1.2840

EUR GBP    0.8760

EUR USD    1.1250

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Gainsborough, Lincolnshire DN21 5TH.

Company Number: 534118