International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Friday 15 March 2019

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soybeans lower after reports that trade talks would most likely extend into April. Corn higher on continued support from rumours of Chinese purchases. Wheat higher on continued short-covering, although market fell off the highs following poor export sales.
  • A meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to resolve the ongoing trade war won’t take place this month, and is more likely to occur in April at the earliest.
  • US Mid-west weather forecast has a strong spring storm currently moving through the plains and Midwest, but things look to quiet down over the weekend and last through most of next week.
  • US Delta/southeast weather forecast is seen moving towards more of a period of drier weather that looks to last into the end of next week.
  • Hot weather will linger in Australia for at least another three months, the country’s meteorology bureau said, piling pressure on the rural sector in one of the world’s top exporter of commodities.
  • Brazilian weather forecast continues with general rainfall moving through the growing regions in an ongoing 10 day period.
  • Argentine weather forecast has rains moving into the southern growing areas over the weekend, with another front has rains for the northern two-third of the growing areas the first half of next week.
  • Argentina’s wheat planting area will rise again in 2019/20, industry experts say, which could mean another bumper harvest after the record wheat crop last season, as the area could reach up to 6.9mln ha, up from 6.3mln in 2018-19.
  • Algeria purchased 450,000t of wheat for April/May shipment, with French wheat looking to have dominated the sale, although some US wheat could have been purchased as well.
  • Ukraine’s grain exports have reached 34.3mln t so far in the 2018-19 marketing season, compared with 27.9mln t at the same time last season, the Ag Ministry reported, citing that exports could rise to around 49mln t, up from 39.4mln t last season.
  • Analyst ProAgro revised up its Ukraine’s 2019 grain harvest to 70.6mln t, from 69.6mln t previously – sees wheat harvest at 28.3mln t, up from 27.6mln t and corn harvest at 31.2mln t vs 35.6mln t in 2018.
  • Germany’s agricultural Coop DRV sees German grain output up 24% in 2019 at 47.1mln t, with wheat production expected at 24.2mln t, up 19% from last year.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’19 Settle £161.95/t – up £1.45/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’19 Settle €187.75 – up €2.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Soybeans Settle  – $8.985/bushel – down 2.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Corn Settle  – $3.7025/bushel – up 3.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’19 Wheat Settle – $4.32755/bushel – up 5.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1710

GBP USD    1.3265

EUR GBP    0.8525

EUR USD    1.1320

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