International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Daily Grain Comments

Monday 24 September 2018

  • US markets close – Soybeans lower on weak meal market. Corn higher on solid export data. Wheat on profit taking, with trade continuing to focus on Australian production and Russian export potential.
  • For the w/e 18th September, CFTC report showed managed money switched their Chicago wheat long position by 19794 contracts (now seen 1379 contracts short), while also trimming their Kansas City wheat long position by 6455 contracts (now seen 37084 contracts long).
  • For the w/e 18th September, CFTC report showed managed money extended their Chicago corn short position by 77806 contracts (now seen 141276 contracts short), while also extending their Chicago soybean short by 1544 contracts (now seen 69813 contracts short).
  • For the w/e 13th September, US all-wheat sales are running 22% behind y/y, with shipments 31% behind (USDA forecasting a 14% increase y/y). Corn sales are running 50% ahead y/y, with shipments up 27% y/y (USDA forecasting a 1% decline y/y).
  • US Midwest weather forecast has things remaining mostly wet through last weekend, with another system hitting the region middle of this week, and a third system for this weekend bringing good rains to the region. Colder air is still seen for the Dakota’s and Minnesota.
  • US 11-16 day forecast has average temperatures for the Midwest and Plains, with precipitation running average in the Midwest and below average in the Plains.
  • Canada and the US showed scant signs last week of closing a deal to revamp the NAFTA. Canadian officials made clear Washington needed to withdraw a threat of possible auto tariffs.
  • A wet and cool week stalled most harvest operations in Saskatchewan, although 62% of the canola crop is now in the bins compared with the 5-year average of 53%.
  • Russia’s agriculture consultancy IKAR sees Russian 2018 wheat production at 69.2mln t, vs a previous forecast of 69.4mln t, as Sovecon cuts Russia’s 2018-19 wheat export forecast to 33mln t from 33.9mln t previously.
  • Kazakhstan’s Ag Ministry is expecting considerable demand for its grain this year, due to poor harvests in Russia, China, and parts of the EU.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’18 Settle £176.35/t – up £0.85/tonne from previous close

Paris Dec ’18 Settle €201.75 – down €0.75/tonne from previous close

CBOT Nov ’18 Soybeans Settle  – $8.4725/bushel – down 3.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Corn Settle  – $3.5725/bushel – up 4.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.2175/bushel – down 2.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1145

GBP USD    1.3110

EUR GBP    0.8970

EUR USD    1.1760

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