International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Market Report

Thursday 7 December 2017

Feed Wheat

US markets, after what appears another ‘dead cat bounce’, have continued their downward spiral this week, trading back towards the recently set contract lows. Australian production was reported lower at 20.3mln t and, while 1.2mln t below the current USDA projection, still remained above local estimates following adverse weather conditions. However, pressure was re-exerted onto the market when Stats Canada reported Canadian all-wheat production at near 30mln t, 2mln t higher than trade expectations, and 3mln t higher than current USDA projection.

US exports still drag last year by 7%, and shipments for Jan-May would have to exceed those made in Jun-Nov by an additional 13% to achieve the export projection. Not an easy prospect given a larger-than-expected Australian wheat crop and a much larger Canadian wheat crop.

EU prices, like their American counterparts, have fallen on the weaker global tone. In addition, pressure was also received from the upward revision in crop size by Coceral, although cash levels show little sign of alteration due to the ongoing lack of farmer selling. EU shipments remain 22% behind last season, still pressured by aggressive sale campaigns by the Black Sea, notably Russia.

‘Deal or no deal’ has been the main interest this week, with an apparent deal struck on the Brexit divorce bill, before it was scuppered over differences relating to the Irish border. However, the grain trade marches on with little change in sentiment. Merchants shorts that had been supporting the market seem now to have sorted out their December requirements, and with the global weakness seem more relaxed in bidding for the deferred positions.

In summary, with demand from the major importers limited until the final quarter (April-June), the main question for the trade now is where can the market find enough demand to push values higher. Market analysis in the new year will increasingly begin to focus on new crop, where to be fair, there are some supportive factors. However, until then it continues to be a market where supply outstrips demand.

Malting Barley

There are plenty of buyers of old crop malting barley, pre-and post-Christmas. However, there is a lack of available unsold malting barley which fits the required max 1.85% nitrogen spec.

Growers are now focusing on the 18/19 crop. For anyone still deciding on which malting barley variety to plant in the spring, Gleadell can offer contracts for the most popular varieties, such as Planet and Propino, but also newer varieties, Laureate and Diablo. Please contact a local Gleadell farm trader for further advise and detail on varieties and available contracts.

Rapeseed

StatsCan surprised the market last night with its latest crop estimates which pegged Canadian production at a record 21.3mln t. After the extensive drought conditions that were seen across large parts of southern Canada in the summer, many were expecting the crop to struggle to reach last season’s 19.6mln t. However, farmers reported better-than-expected outputs across the piece for both grains and oilseeds and the market fell sharply.

Despite the on-going weather concerns in South America, the bearish StatsCan report pushed soybeans down to their recent lows, and Matif rapeseed followed suit with prices down €5 since the numbers were released.

To add to the bearish sentiment, we hear several cargos of Australian rapeseed have recently been traded for delivery into Europe in the early new year at values that undercut current continental prices.

Pulses

Buyers of feed beans remain hard to find. There is a complete lack of interest from the domestic feed compounder, and only limited interest from shippers who are speculatively buying in the hope of renewed export demand in the new year.

Farmer selling remains slow and this has stopped the market falling further. With a large crop of feed beans unsold, it remains hard to see any reason for this market to rally in the short-term.

There are now no buyers of human consumption beans with processors covered until mid-January, the latest they can load containers and get them shipped to Sudan before the import restriction comes into place. With limited available supplies of suitable quality material available, exporters are unwilling to sell further bulk vessels to Egypt.

Seed

2018/19 RECOMMENDED LIST SPECIAL

The new Recommended Lists were made available on Monday 4th and there have been exciting additions to bolster Gleadell’s offer into Autumn 2018.

Wheat

RGT Gravity is a new addition Group 4 hard feed variety gaining automatic recommendation to the 18-19 AHDB Recommended List.

RGT Gravity ideally suits the main drilling window and right through for those looking for late drilling options – it has an extremely aggressive growth habit to help compete against grass weeds.

RGT Gravity is:

  • Highest yielding in the UK
  • Highest yielding in the east, west and north
  • Automatic feed wheat recommendation first for some time
  • Highest yielding in NL1 & NL2
  • Highest yielding recommended list trials (RLT)
  • Top first wheat and second wheat
  • Top on heavy and light soils
  • Top in all regions
  • Top late sown
  • OWBM resistant

Other notable wheats added include Gleam from Syngenta, which has very high yield potential and excellent disease resistance, including midge. Also Elicit from Elsoms is a welcome addition to the Group 3 softs, with joint highest yield in the group, with a very good all-round disease profile.

OSR

The OSR list has been dramatically consolidated with 15 varieties removed and only 5 new additions. RGT Windozz from RAGT is now the highest yielding variety in the E/W region. RGT Windozz is into its third commercial year and benefits from having extremely consistent results over trials years while offering good overall disease.

RGT Windozz is:

  • The UKs highest yielding variety & top of the E&W recommended list
  • Excellent spring vigour
  • Early maturity
  • Short and stiff stemmed
  • Early flowering
  • Solid disease resistance

Gleadell has an exclusive offer on both RGT Gravity and RGT Windozz for orders received before Christmas. Contact your farm trader to discuss in more detail.

Fertiliser

Granular Urea

Prices eased far enough this week to attract numerous traders to step back into the market. Levels firmed from $220/t to $240/t fob for January shipment in the latest sales out of Egypt.

With traders selling short into Europe and Turkey over the past couple of weeks, there has been a rush of demand to cover these positions now that prices are on the rise again.

Expectation is that India still need to tender before the year is out and this would definitely lend further support to the market.

In the UK levels did stabilise, but are already starting to edge higher tracking international pricing.

Gleadell is in a good position to offer urea at attractive levels, with a large vessel of Egyptian origin urea set to arrive in early January.

Ammonium Nitrate

CF have held prices unchanged, offering a discount to anyone who can take product in the first half of January.

The current levels remain competitive compared to European values, which are trading at much higher levels. However, long-holders of imported product are now starting to move stock at a discount to UK blue bag.

£/€ £/$ €/$
1.132 1.334 1.178
Feed Barley £ Feed Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
Dec17 122.00-130.00 130.00-145.00 148.00 307.00-312.00
May18 125.00-135.00 135.00-147.00 153.00 311.00-316.00
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although Gleadell take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the Gleadell Market Report , it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Gleadell will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

Gleadell Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

Gleadell trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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Lindsey House, Hemswell Cliff,
Gainsborough, Lincolnshire DN21 5TH.

Company Number: 534118