International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Market Report

Friday 25 May 2018

Feed Wheat

For wheat, weather issues continue to dominate, providing strong directional movement in markets. US farmers over the past few weeks have been active getting crops sown, and although corn and soybean planting rates are near, or slightly above average, spring wheat continues to lag. In addition, the late sowing of the crop has resulted in slow growth and crop development. US winter wheat crop conditions have shown little change over the past weeks, despite reports of beneficial rains in parts of the HRW wheat areas and, with the outlook now turning to a drier forecast, especially for the Southern Plains, crops could become stressed, leading to further declines in condition, and yield potential, as harvest nears.

European markets have also reacted strongly to the rising global markets, supported by a weaker US$/euro exchange. Dryness concerns persist over parts of the eastern EU/Ukraine and Russia, where a much colder weather system is expected. France confirmed Algeria had purchased 675,000t, likely to be mostly of French origin, but at a $15/t premium to equivalent Russian wheat. The question remains, how long will Algeria continue to ignore Russia? The French farmer, co-ops and trade hope for a long time yet!

UK old crop dynamics remain little changed, with consumption and merchant short demand supporting higher levels. While new crop trades higher on the back of firmer, weather-driven global markets, one thing to watch is sterling, which does have the ability to appreciate significantly if UK economic data or progress in Brexit negotiations are evident. UK farmers have sold some volume into recent price rallies whilst end consumers are largely twitching on the side-lines.

In summary, weather issues in the US, Canada, Australia and the Black Sea region continue to drive markets higher. The weather is set to have a major say in final output in the aforementioned regions, and the focus of the trade currently remains firmly on the supply side of the equation, not demand.

Malting Barley

This week the Malting Barley Committee published the Harvest 2019 Approved List of malting barley varieties.

Craft has received full approval for brewing use. This winter malting variety is higher yielding and has better agronomics than SY Venture. Craft has already received great interest from UK brewers and maltsters and will quickly replace SY Venture.

Electrum has been given provisional approval for brewing use. This winter variety boasts exceptional early maturity and very high untreated yields. Electrum will undergo brewing tests in 2019.

LG Diablo – the new spring dual-purpose variety has been provisionally approved for brewing and malt distilling use. LG Diablo is the highest yielding spring malting variety available on the Recommended List, with a good agronomic profile. Diablo looks likely to take a large share of the spring area from crop 19.

Chanson has moved up to the second stage of provisional approval for brewing use. This spring variety is earlier to establish and there is already interest from both domestic and export markets. Yields are similar to Laureate and Planet.

The varieties highlighted above have the potential to take a large proportion of market share in the coming years, and Gleadell is already in a position to offer contracts to growers for crop 19/20. Please contact your local Gleadell farm trader for more advice on these up and coming varieties and the available contracts.

Rapeseed

Rapeseed prices on the Matif futures have rallied this week as detrimental weather conditions across northern Europe have impacted on crop prospects. Dry weather across the Baltics, Poland, UK and Northern Germany have stressed the crop at the key flowering and pod setting period, and farmers have already been pointing to early flower drop and aborted pod sites.

The EU crop size could well decline by 700,000t vs last year to 21.5mln t, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the UK crop dipped to 1.8mln compared to 2.1 this campaign. However, it is worth noting that this rally is based on forecast issues. IF it turns out that we don’t have a crop problem, the market will refocus on heavy global oilseed stocks. With this in mind, we are suggesting to our growers that they ought to be selling a percentage of their new crop production into this recent rally.

Pulses

Old crop feed beans have firmed on the week driven by continued demand from compounders to the north west and south west of the country. There has also been some renewed demand from Egypt for old crop beans, because Australian prices are very firm, which is forcing buyers to look for cheaper alternatives. Unfortunately, there is little suitable spring material left on farm in the UK.

New crop beans continue to firm in line with wheat futures. Whilst there has been some consumer demand at these higher numbers, export demand is non-existent for both feed and human consumption quality, as Baltic origin beans are significantly cheaper.

Seed

Forage Maize

There has been some very late interest in forage maize this year from growers who have not been able to get their other crops drilled in time. We would strongly advise now to plant an early-maturing variety to make sure harvest is not pushed back too far due to the later planting.  Aurelius KWS, CITO KWS and RGT Stewaxx are available for immediate delivery.

Variety Focus – Aquila Winter Oilseed Rape

The combination of high gross output potential, 6 for light leaf sport and 8 for stem canker, thanks to its RLM7 genetics, which also bring in pod shatter resistance, Aquila has a lot to offer growers as a very reliable, consistently high performer on farm. Relatively early to flower with mid maturity, Aquila also benefits from a high oil content of 45.6%, which is an important characteristic of gross output, especially at lower commodity values. For extra speed of emergence to help grow away from pest pressure, Gleadell applies its well-established micronutrient product Turbo to all Aquila seed. For exclusive offers ahead of the autumn please call you Gleadell farm trader.

Fertiliser

Nitrogen

Globally, a flurry of activity saw urea markets bounce sharply this week, as Egyptian origin urea sold at over $240/t, up $ 18/t from the previous trade. Any offers in to the UK have quickly been withdrawn, as those speculating that the market would move lower have now had to re-evaluate the situation. Forecasts suggest supply will outweigh demand from late June/July and we may see another dip in levels at some point, but urea markets are now a long way from the lows of last year. With higher freight rates, a weaker £/$ and environmental policy still weighing heavy on Chinese production, there is plenty to suggest now that global markets will not fall as low as the values seen last year.

Many have held off purchasing nitrogen, awaiting an announcement from CF on their new-season terms. As spot markets remain busy, particularly in the west, and the competitiveness of imports continue to be hindered by weaker currency, CF is in a strong position to continue servicing this market and is unlikely to rush to the market with new terms.

Foliar N

ENhancePro is one of the leading foliar sprays in the UK for ENhancing proteins in milling wheats. A unique nitrogenous foliar spray formulated with ammonium thiosulphate, a highly bio-available sulphur, that in field trials has been proven to increase the levels of protein within the grain when foliar applied. The inclusion of buffers means ENhancePro greatly reduces the risk of scorching, whilst the adhesive compounds increase contact time with the leaf, enhancing absorption and increasing bio-availability. At 50 litres/ha, ENhancePro delivers 17kg/ha of N and 20Kg/ha of bio-available sulphur, making it comparable to many other foliar ureic products requiring 200 litres/ha application rates.

£/€ £/$ €/$
1.1395 1.336 1.172
Feed Barley £ Feed Wheat £ Beans £ Oilseed Rape £
June18 145.00-155.00 152.00-167.00 172.00 296.00-301.00
Nov18 136.00-144.00 150.00-160.00 177.00 303.00-308.00
NB: Prices listed may vary depending on area.

NB: Prices quoted are indicative only at the time of going to press and subject to location and quality.

“Although Gleadell take steps to ensure the validity of all information contained within the Gleadell Market Report , it makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Gleadell will have no liability or responsibility for the information or any action or failure to act based upon such information.”

Gleadell Agriculture cannot accept liability arising from errors or omissions in this publication.

Gleadell trade under AIC contracts which incorporate the arbitration clause.

Terms and Conditions of Purchase.

On every occasion, without exception, grain and pulses will be bought by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the AIC No.1 Grain and Peas or Beans contract applicable on the date of the transaction. Also, we will always, and without exception, buy oilseed rape and linseed by incorporating by reference the terms & conditions of the respective terms of the FOSFA 26A and the FOSFA 9A contracts applicable on the date of the transaction. It is a condition of all such transactions that the seller is deemed to know, accept and understand the terms and conditions of each of the above contracts.

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Lindsey House, Hemswell Cliff,
Gainsborough, Lincolnshire DN21 5TH.

Company Number: 534118