International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Wednesday 21 February 2018


Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soy higher, but off the highs, on less than forecasted Argentinian rains. Corn lower as exports slip, Argentina still supports, ample supplies weigh. Wheat lower as rains across parts of the US HRW wheat belt triggered some long liquidation/new selling.
  • South American weather has limited rainfall for Argentina over the next week/10 days. Light rain seen for S Brazil & good rains in the north. Temperatures look to run below average in Argentina/S Brazil, with near average in the rest of Brazil.
  • US weather looks to be active with rains in E Kansas, E Oklahoma and Texas. 6-10 day forecast sees more rains possible in eastern sections of the HRW wheat belt, limited rains in the western part.
  • Brazilian farmers have harvested 17% of the soy crop so far, below last year’s 26%, as bad weather disrupts work in some states.
  • Brazilian agency Safras & Mercado sees the soy crop to reach 115.6mln t in 2017-18, 1.2% above last season’s record crop of 114.2mln t. The agency sees the corn crop falling 17% y/y to 89.46mln t, on a 11% reduction in planted area and lower projected yields.
  • The drought afflicting Argentina since November has shrivelled soy yields to the point that analysts and farmers have reduced harvest estimates by about 10mln t, with final crop forecasts consolidating under the 50mln t mark.
  • Russian wheat prices rose sharply last week, supported by higher global benchmark prices, as Chicago touched a 6-month peak and helped by strong demand for Black Sea wheat in Asia.
  • Russia’s February exports of wheat, barley and maize are estimated at 3.1mln t, down from 3.5mln t in January, SovEcon reported in a weekly update.
  • Most of Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in a good or satisfactory condition a/o Feb 19th thanks to favourable weather, reported the Ag Ministry. The % of the crops in good/satisfactory conditions totalled 87%, or 6.3mln ha.
  • French farm office AgriMer estimated that 84% of French soft wheat crops were in good/excellent condition a/o Feb 12th, compared with 92% at the same time last year.
  • Cereal crops in the EU have suffered very little frost damage this winter and no losses are expected during the second half of February, the EU’s crop monitoring service commented .

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’18 Settle £138.95/t – down £0.50/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’18 Settle €162.25 – unchanged from previous close

CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle  – $3.655/bushel – down 2.00cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.4925/bushel – down 8.50cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1310

GBP USD    1.3940

EUR GBP    0.8835

EUR USD    1.2320

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