International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Wednesday 14 February

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US market closes –  Soy higher on continued strength in soymeal and Argentine weather concerns. Corn virtually unchanged despite Argentine concerns but see Chinese cancellations over GMO seen as negative. Wheat lower on potential of increased rain chances for the wheat belt.
  • South American weather still has limited rainfall in Argentina for most of the week, when rains look to fall in most areas over the weekend. Near average rainfall seen in Brazil for next 10 days, with temperatures looking to run average in Argentina / S Brazil this week.
  • Things look to be fairly quiet across the HRW belt for much of the week and next 10 days, with possibilities of rainfall seen in the Southern Plains over the weekend.
  • Australia’s winter crop production in the year ending Mar 31st is expected to fall but won’t be as bad as expected, reports ABARES – total grain production is seen falling 36% y/y to 37.8mln t, 8% higher than in December, with wheat production falling 37% y/y to 21.2mln t
  • China’s recent cancelled corn purchases, that were switched from the US to the Ukraine due to tightening of rules on GMO crops, has pushed Ukraine’s corn prices to their highest since 2016 as corn supply is lower y/y due to a late start to the harvest.
  • US attaché in Kazakhstan reports FAS/Astana’s wheat production estimates remains unchanged for 2017-18 at 13.5mln t with the new forecast for 2018-19 down to 13.4mln t due to a slightly lower planted area.
  • Most of Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in a good/satisfactory condition a/o Feb 8th thanks to favourable weather, reports UkrAgroConsult. The % of crops in good condition totalled 49.6% vs 38.3% y/y, satisfactory condition 37.0% vs 43.8% y/y, weak 13.4% vs 17.9% y/y.
  • France’s farm ministry cut its estimate of the area sown with winter wheat for the 2018 harvest to 4.96mln ha , down from 5.03mln ha in its initial estimate in December. The revised estimate is still 0.1% above the area harvested in 2017.

 

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’18 Settle £140.00/t – up £0.10/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’18 Settle €163.00 – up €0.25/t from previous close

CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle $3.6675/bushel – down 0.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle $4.6075/bushel – down 3.25 cents/bushel from previous close

 

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1230

GBP USD    1.3865

EUR GBP    0.8903

EUR USD    1.2350

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