International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Tuesday 24 October

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – Soy higher, caught between improved SA weather prospects and a slowdown in US harvest activity/selling. Corn higher as market held above contract low which may have triggered some short-covering. Wheat higher on short covering, linked to futures holding above contract lows, and reports of colder US weather.
  • NASS reported US maize crop condition at 66% good/excellent, up 1% point on the week (74% last year), with 96% of the crop mature vs 99% last year and 97% as 5-yr average while 38% of the crop is harvested vs 59% last year and 59% as 5-yr average.
  • NASS reported 97% of the soy crop dropping leaves vs 98% last year and 97% as 5-yr average while 70% of the crop is harvested vs 74% last year and 73% as 5-yr average.
  • NASS reported US winter wheat crop was 75% planted vs 78% last year and 80% as 5-yr average with 52% of the crop emerged vs 58% last year and 57% as 5-yr average.
  • US Midwest weather will turn dry for the rest of the week with another system for the region next week-end with heavier precipitation – temperatures fall to average / bit below average, a hard freeze is likely in all areas by next week-end or early next week
  • US Southern Plains weather has things looking dry for much of the next week/ 10 days – temperatures will be running average to below for most of the next 10 days
  • Australia’s wheat production forecast for 2017-18 has again been lowered by the USDA due to the ongoing adverse seasonal weather conditions, it now forecasts the country will produce 20mln t, down around 40% on last year’s record season.
  • South American weather had Argentina fairly quiet for the week before rains fall towards the end of the week/early next week. Soaking rains are seen for southern Brazil with the 6-10 day forecast showing good rains for all of Brazil, including the North.
  • Brazilian farmers have planted 20% of the expected soy area compared with 12% a week ago, AgRural reports, which is in line with the 5-yr average of 19%.
  • Russia’s 2017 grain harvest a/o Oct 19th has all grains at 133mln t, vs 117mln t at the same time last year, with wheat at 88mln t vs 76mln t a year ago, reported the Ministry – farmers have also sown winter grains on 93% of the planned area (16.2mln ha).

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’17 Settle £139.00/t – down £0.60/t from previous close

Paris Dec ’17 Settle €161.75 – up €0.50/t from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.5125/bushel – up 6.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.3675/bushel – up 10.75 cents/bushel from previous close

 

Currency Today:

GBP EUR   1.1205

GBP USD   1.3180

EUR GBP   0.8920

EUR USD   1.1754

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