International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Monday 5 March 2018


Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close – soy higher on continued concerns over a lower Argentine crop. Corn lower as fund long leaves market vulnerable to profit taking & lower Argentine crop supports. Wheat lower on concerns funds may have liquidated their large net short/profit taking.
  • CFTC reports showed that a/o 27th February, managed funds trimmed their Chicago wheat short by 6407 contracts (now seen 60632 contracts short), also trimmed long KCBT position by 2133 contracts, but switched their Minneapolis position to be 458 contracts short.
  • CFTC reports showed that a/o 27th February, managed funds extended their Chicago corn long by 40446 contracts (now seen 59120 contracts long), and extended their Chicago soy long by 48269 contracts (now seen 147380 contracts long).
  • For the w/e Feb 22nd, US all-wheat sales running 12% behind y/y, with shipments 6% behind y/y vs USDA projected 10% decline. Corn sales 9% behind y/y, with shipments 28% behind y/y vs projected 11% decline. Soy sales 13% behind y/y, with shipments 13% behind y/y vs 3% decline.
  • US President Trump urged representatives for rival oil and corn industries to break a deadlock in talks over the nation’s future biofuel policy by accepting a deal involving reforms sought by both sides last week.
  • Argentine weather forecast had rains last weekend with limited rainfall seen this week – temperatures seen average to above average.
  • Brazilian weather forecast has decent rainfall for most of Brazil this week with the south turning drier towards the weekend – temperatures seen average for Brazil.
  • US weather sees things looking quiet with any rainfall favouring eastern KA, OK and TX – close to average temperatures are seen for the plains over most of this week
  • China’s leaders need to decide whether President Trump’s planned hike in steel and aluminium tariffs justifies starting a fight that might disrupt access to one of the US’s biggest markets.
  • South Africa’s wheat imports are expected to more than double to 2.2mln t in 2018 (935,000t last year), as a severe drought hits production in the key Western Cape growing region, resulting in record crop losses in wheat production.
  • The exports of grain from Russia in the 2017-18 agricultural year may reach 50mln t, the Ag Minister commented, adding that it was also too early to make a forecast for the harvest.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’18 Settle £141.65/t – down £0.85/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’18 Settle €164.75 – down €4.00/tonne from previous close

CBOT May ’18 Corn Settle  – $3.7875/bushel – down 3.25 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’18 Wheat Settle – $5.0000/bushel – down 15.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1220

GBP USD    1.3825

EUR GBP    0.8905

EUR USD    1.2315

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