International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Monday 4 December 2017

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soy higher on US crush data & talk of Chinese buying. Corn higher as monthly ethanol usage greater than expected. Wheat higher on short covering & Australia production/quality concerns.
  • CFTC reports showed that a/o 28th November managed funds extended their Chicago wheat short by 14108 contracts (now seen 122774 contracts short), extended their short KCBT wheat position by 3489 contracts and long Minneapolis position by 702 contract.
  • CFTC reports showed that a/o 28th November managed funds trimmed their Chicago corn short by 13703 contracts (now seen 197763 contracts short), but extended their long Chicago soybean position by 11518 contracts (now seen 31662 contracts long).
  • US EPA said it will require fuel companies to blend slightly more biofuels into the nation’s gasoline and diesel next year, angering oil refiners who view them as a competitive threat. 2018 targets companies to blend 19.29bln gallons, up from 19.28bln for 2017, including 15bln gallons of conventional biofuels like corn-based ethanol, in line with 2017.
  • Stats Canada will release final crop estimates for 2017 on December 6th, based on a farmers survey. Wheat production is seen higher than earlier estimates as favourable weather produced big yields, all-wheat production looks to total 28mln t.
  • Heavy rains in Eastern Australia forecasted to intensify are threatening to wipe out, or damage up to 4mln of wheat due to be harvested soon, with many grain storage sites forced to close.
  • South American weather with light and scattered rainfall seen this week. Things look quiet in Southern Brazil with average/above average rainfall seen for Northern Brazil this week. Temperatures still look to run below average with no cold air threat.
  • Russian wheat production is estimated at 76.7mln t next year according to SovEcon. Estimate is based on normal weather conditions and an average loss of 6% in plantings.
  • Russia’s winter grain sowings are in worse condition than a year ago, but snow and rains may help in December. 5% are in bad condition compared with 3% a year ago due to a lack of moisture in the soil in some regions. Area sown to winter grains put at 98% of the total planned area, or on 17.1mln ha, compared with 17.3mln ha a year ago.
  • French famers a/o Nov 27th had virtually finished soft wheat sowings (99% of planned area completed), with 96% of the emerging crop reported in good/excellent condition, unchanged from a week earlier.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’18 Settle £142.50/t – up £0.25/t from previous close

Paris Dec ’17 Settle €159.50 – unchanged from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.4475/bushel – up 3.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.1450/bushel – up 5.25 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1330

GBP USD    1.3425

EUR GBP    0.8825

EUR USD    1.1850

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