International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Friday 23 February 2018


Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets close –  soy lower, although reduced Argentine supply/US acres offered support. Corn higher on reduced Argentine production, although higher US acres/farmer selling limits upside. Wheat higher on lower US$ and fund short covering on recent dip.
  • USDA projected US 2018 corn plantings at 90mln acres (90.2mln in 2017) soybean plantings at 90mln acres (90.1mln in 2017) and all-wheat plantings at 46.5mln acres (46mln on 2017) with the increase likely to come in spring wheat plantings.
  • US Commerce Dept. said it had made a final finding that biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia had been dumped – dumping duties for Argentina are currently at 60.44% to 86.41%, and for Indonesia currently at 92.52% to 276.65%.
  • Argentine weather forecast continues with limited rainfall over a 10 day period – temperatures looking to run below average.
  • Brazilian weather forecast continues with limited rains seen in Southern Brazil over next 7 days, moderate to heavy rains are seen towards the end of next week, good rains seen for Northern Brazil. Temperature seen below average in the South, near average in rest of Brazil.
  • US weather sees snow for northern Kansas with rains in eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas over next 4 days. Next week sees similar pattern ending next weekend – no cold air threat seen for the plains.
  • Argentina’s Rosario Exchange slashed its forecast for the country’s soy and corn crops by 5mln t or more due to drought. Soy crop revised lower to 46.5mln t, from 52mln t previously, while the expected corn crop was cut to 35mln t, from 40mln t previously.
  • Argentina’s BAGE estimated the soybean crop production at 47mln t, down from 50mln t previously. Corn crop production estimate was also lowered to 37mln t from 39mln previously.
  • Persistent drought and expected hot weather has lowered India’s 2018-19 wheat production 1% y/y to 94.6mln t. A weak monsoon and dryness since October have resulted in soil moisture deficits, with less favourable conditions lowering winter wheat plantings.
  • The countries of SE Asia have become the major buyer of Ukrainian wheat this season, importing around a third of the total volume exported (reported at 3.53mln t), with 3.15mln t being shipped to African countries, 1.89mln t to South Asia and 1.17mln t to the EU.
  • IKAR reported it had raised its forecast for Russia’s 2017-18 grain exports to 48.6mln t, up from the previously expected 47.7mln t. The forecast for Russia’s 2017-18 wheat exports was raised to 37.5mln t  from 36.6mln t previously.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’18 Settle £139.25/t – up £0.40/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’18 Settle €163.50 – up €0.50/tonne from previous close

CBOT Mar ’18 Corn Settle  – $3.6675/bushel – up 1.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Mar ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.5125/bushel – up 4.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1350

GBP USD    1.3970

EUR GBP    0.8805

EUR USD    1.2305

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Gainsborough, Lincolnshire DN21 5TH.

Company Number: 534118