International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Friday 17 November 2017

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Daily Grain Comments

  • US markets – soy lower on concerns over US export demand & a mostly favourable SA weather outlook. Corn lower (new contract low) as lower than hoped weekly sales offered resistance to price. Wheat lower as Egypt purchased with no apparent ‘quality premium’.
  • US soybean processors ‘squeezed’ the lowest amount of oil from each bushel of beans in two years last month. Less oil % would mean tighter supplies and potentially higher bean prices, as more beans would need to be crushed to produce the same level of oil.
  • Informa estimates US 2018 corn area at 91.4mln acres (90.4mln last year), soybean area at 89.6mln acres (90.2mln last year), and all-wheat area at 45.6mln acres (46.0mln last year).
  • SAm weather sees no major changes, with 6-10 days forecast having limited rainfall for Argentina with moderate rainfall possibly in the West. 6-10 forecast for Brazil continues to see good rainfall – temperatures seen running below average in most areas for next 10 days.
  • Egypt’s state buyer GASC purchased 240,000t of Russian wheat for January 1-10 shipment. The tender drew just 6 offers because of the new uncertainty over the state’s import policy, although prices paid were apparently comparable to its previous Dec15-31 tender.
  • Chinese Agrobusiness COFCO Corp looks to purchase 2.5mln t of Canada’s canola crop next year, a boost of more than 1/3 over its expected purchases this year, as its Canadian office gets established.
  • India’s decision to allow pulse exports ‘will correct price distortions, improve returns for farmers and potentially open up greater investment in the sector’, cited the government as it lifted an 11-year ban on export of all types of pulses.
  • Argentina’s Government will cut the cost of docking services in the port of Rosario by 30% when it implements a maximum rate for entry/exit guide services in December. Aim to lower the costs of producing and exporting grains in order to boost economic growth.
  • Argentina’s leading grain-producing province approved a 50% increase in the tax on farm land as part of its just-passed 2018 budget, a levy that farmers say will harm investment and production. BA Province accounts for 1/3rd of the area planted with soybean in Argentina.
  • Difficult sowing conditions in Northern Europe prompted consultancy Strategie Grains to cut its monthly estimate for the area sown with wheat for the 2018 crop, to 23.5mln ha (23.8mln last month), and down from the 23.7mln sown ahead of the 2017 harvest.
  • French farm office AgriMer lowered its monthly forecast of soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2017-18 to 9.9mln t, from 10.2mln t. Office raised its outlook for soft wheat stocks at the end of the season to 3.3mln t, up from 3.2mln t previously.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’17 Settle £137.25/t – down £0.95/t from previous close

Paris Dec ’17 Settle €158.75 – down €0.50/t from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.3650/bushel – down 1.75 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.2150/bushel – up 1.50 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today

GBP EUR    1.1230

GBP USD    1.3250

EUR GBP    0.8900

EUR USD    1.17795

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