International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Daily Grain Comments

Friday 16 March 2018

  • US markets close – soy higher on less-than-expected rains over past 24-48 hours. Corn lower as market trading from an overbought position. Wheat lower on ‘aggressive sell-off’ following the release of poor export sales.
  • Argentine weather forecast still sees two fronts occurring in the next 5 days. Temperatures remain average/below average for the next 10 day period.
  • Brazilian weather forecast sees frequent, scattered showers and thunderstorms activity for most crop area through middle of next week. Temperatures are seen remaining near average.
  • US weather forecast models run increased precipitation in south west Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles.
  • Rosario Grains Exchange lowered their Argentine soybean estimate to 40mln t, from 46.5mln t previously. They also lowered their corn estimate to 32mln t, down from their previous estimate of 35mln t.
  • Ukraine’s corn prices continue to rise, currently trading up 21% on the year, as China and Turkey have increased their purchases. Also traditional buyers, the EU and Egypt, have increased purchases due to the lack of Argentine corn offers due to the recent drought.
  • Egypt’s GASC purchased 240,000t (120 Russian and 120 Romanian) for 15-25 April. Prices paid reflected a $2-3/y increase on their pervious tender (6th March). Only 3 offers of Russian wheat as logistic issues increase, plus other destinations carry less execution/costing risk.
  • Brussels reported non-EU soft wheat exports a/o March 13th at 13.87mln t, down 21.8% y/y, with all wheat exports at 15.18mln t, down 22.6% y/y. Soft wheat imports (year-to date) were reported at 3mln t, up 25% y/y, with all-wheat imports at 4.08mln t, up 12.7% y/y.

Last Trade Settlement:

London May ’18 Settle £145.25/t – up £0.25/tonne from previous close

Paris May ’18 Settle €165.50 – up €0.50.tonne from previous close

CBOT May ’18 Corn Settle  – $3.8675/bushel – down 2.00 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT May ’18 Wheat Settle – $4.7875/bushel – up 10.00 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1330

GBP USD    1.3960

EUR GBP    0.8820

EUR USD    1.2320

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