International Grain, Seed and Fertiliser Merchant

Daily Grain Comments

Wednesday 26 July 2017

  • US markets – soy lower despite decline in crop ratings, noted SAm producer selling (lower Real).  Corn lower on forecast of an active rain system bringing moisture to the western and central corn belts. Wheat lower as crop tour surprises market with spring wheat yields of 48.7bpa from samples in SE North Dakota and Western Minnesota.  Weaker corn/soy markets and Egyptian tender also weighed.
  • Several market analysts have lowered their corn yield to 163.5bpa, which would leave ending stocks near 1.75mln bushels, although trade currently trading short-term weather as a ‘normal’.  Two week Midwest forecast triggered fund long liquidation.
  • US$ sagged to more than a one-year low, as investors bet that subdued US inflation and political strains in Washington would limit Federal Reserve interest rate moves for the rest of the year.
  • US weather – Midwest forecast has no major changes as rains seen in Southern Minnesota, most of Iowa, Northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, before turning dry into the weekend/early next week.  Some hotter temps move in for the middle of the week, before cooling into the weekend.
  • Storms in Argentina over the next two weeks will slow the final stages of the 2017-18 wheat planting, with flooded areas likely to be sown with soy once moisture evaporates later this year.  Heavy rains will make it hard for growers to plant the 5.4mln ha currently estimated by the BAGE.
  • South African Government’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) is expected to report the corn harvest for 2017 at 15.77mln tm, up 51% from the 7.78mln t last year, when drought hit yields and plantings.
  • Russian export prices were mixed last week, after nine straight weeks of higher prices.  Concerns over a lack of high quality wheat and strengthening competition with France for wheat supplies to Egypt limited gains.
  • Ukraine has threshed 14.5mln t of grain so far during this season’s harvest with an average yield of 3.36t/ha, reported the Ag Ministry, adding that farmers a/o 22nd July had harvested 4.3mln ha of the 14.3mln ha sown this year (including 9.1mln of wheat from 2.5mln ha).
  • Egypt’s GASC purchased 420,000t (300 Russian, 60 Ukrainian and 60 Romanian) for 1-10 September with prices paid close to previous tender.  French and US HRW were indicated about $5 and $10 higher on a fob basis, and also more expensive on freight.
  • EU’s crop monitoring unit (MARS) cuts it’s EU yield outlook for corn to 6.83y/ha from 7.14t/ha last month, following hot and dry conditions in the southeast.  Also trimmed the EU soft wheat yield to 5.85t/ha, down from 5.86t/ha previously, but still close to the 5-yr average.

Last Trade Settlement:

London Nov ’17 Settle £145.00/t – down £1.80/t from previous close

Paris Dec ’17 Settle €173.75 – down €1.50/t from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Corn Settle $3.8225/bushel – down 8.50 cents/bushel from previous close

CBOT Dec ’17 Wheat Settle $4.9900/bushel – down 14.5 cents/bushel from previous close

Currency Today:

GBP EUR    1.1195

GBP USD    1.3015

EUR GBP    0.8930

EUR USD    1.1625

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